WP1 Extreme precipitation statistics from satellite data

WP1 applies new extreme value theory (EVT) approaches, including the Maximum Entropy-based Extreme Value Distribution (MEVD) and traditional Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) methods, to satellite precipitation datasets for generating national-scale extreme rainfall maps. Diverse satellite products will be exploited, spanning different satellite sensors, retrieval techniques, spatiotemporal resolutions and offering diverse perspectives on precipitation estimation.

Task 1.1 Extreme rainfall estimation based on satellite datasets.

Task 1.2 Generation of bias-corrected National-scale grids of extreme rainfall.

WP2 Development and application of rainfall retrievals from radar sensors for the downscaling of ordinary and extreme rainfall

WP2 focuses on calibrating Weather Radar (WR) high-resolution rainfall estimates against data from a dense rain gauge network in the Palermo area, Sicily. Corrected data are exploited to create downscaled extreme rainfall maps and to derive parameters for a synthetic rainfall time series stochastic generator.

Task 2.1 Weather radar data calibration and correction.

Task 2.2 Investigation of sub-daily extreme rainfall scaling relationships.

WP3 Climatological properties of ordinary and extreme rainfall

WP3 will use national-scale rainfall extreme maps to identify extreme rainfall hotspots, to expand the identification of critical areas analyzing their extent and regional patterns and to investigate the influence of orography on spatial variability of extreme rainfall across durations. Using satellite data and the MEVD framework, orographic impacts on design extremes will be investigated while advancing knowledge of causative physical mechanisms.

Task 3.1 Trend detection in daily extremes and nonstationary design rainfall

Task 3.2 Patterns in rainfall extremes

WP4 Assessment of extreme rainfall impacts

WP4 exploits ordinary and extreme rainfall statistics to quantitatively assess their impact on rainfall-induced hazards for the current and future conditions based on well-consolidated approaches. These scenarios will then be input into a hydrological-stability impact model to estimate the likelihood of shallow landslides occurring in small, slip-prone basins. A procedure to derive statistical properties for these landslide occurrences will be developed.

Task 4.1 Estimation of soil moisture critical thresholds

Task 4.2 High temporal resolution meteorological scenarios at the basin scale

Task 4.3 Occurrence probabilities estimates of landslides hazard at basin scale