Rainfall-related hazards rank among the most damaging natural hazards, in Italy and worldwide. Effectively managing risks and enhancing societal resilience to these hazards requires quantitative data on the probability of occurrence of extreme rainfall events. While historical rainfall records from rain gauges provide valuable insights for estimating these probabilities at specific locations, they suffer relevant limitations. These data often lack the multi-scale detail necessary for comprehensive hazard assessments and fail to capture the spatial variability of extreme rainfall in regions with pronounced climatological gradients, such as mountainous or coastal areas. These regions, particularly in Italy, are where most rainfall-related hazards occur. 

INTENSE brings together a multidisciplinary team from four research units to address these limitations by integrating data from rain gauges, weather radars, and satellites with advanced statistical methods, stochastic weather generators, and physically-based models. Leveraging remotely sensed rainfall data requires innovative approaches to link traditional analyses of extreme rainfall maxima with new statistical frameworks that connect rainfall processes to the frequency of extreme events. 

INTENSE has developed a groundbreaking statistical methodology for analyzing extreme rainfall from remote sensing data, generating national-scale maps of extreme rainfall across multiple temporal and spatial scales. This approach, which explicitly separates storm occurrence from intensity, enables a direct connection between local rainfall climatology—encompassing storm frequency, intensity, and temporal structure—and the probability of shallow mass movement initiation.  

The project has used physically-based landslide initiation models informed by extensive climate simulations that accurately represent the characteristics of both ordinary and extreme rainfall. Through this, INTENSE will establish a robust framework for quantifying landslide initiation probabilities based on key rainfall properties. Furthermore, it will provide a basis for evaluating the potential impacts of climate change on rainfall properties and their associated hazards. 

To achieve these ambitious goals, INTENSE brings together a multidisciplinary team from four research units, each contributing with specialized expertise.